近日，第六届牛津中国论坛日前在牛津大学举办，知乎CTO李大海出席并发表演讲，就中国科技的未来发展分享了自己的观点。李大海认为，中国实质上已经是一个科技大国，在成为下一个科技强国的路上，科技创新能力、与基础科学研究将是未来发展的核心地带。

以下为演讲全文：

感谢牛津中国论坛的邀请和热情接待，谢谢大家的掌声。今天的论坛主题很宏大，作为一个中国科技产业的「圈内人」，我也来简单谈谈我的看法。

Thank you. Thanks for Oxford China Forum and your applause. As a participant of China’s technology industry, I would like to share my views in today’s topic.

我们常说，科技是第一生产力。每年科技界都会贡献出足以改变世界的突破，慢慢渗透进我们每个人的生活。

As the saying goes，technology is the primary productive forces. There are so many technological innovations every year that will change our lives.

2018 年，我们同样听到很多振奋的消息，基因试纸被开发、新型光合作用被发现、人工智能应用爆发、洞察号登陆火星...... 小到基因序列，大到外太空，科技让人类发现了越来越大的世界。

There was lots of good news in 2018 too.The multiplexed and portable nucleic acid detection platform，the new type of photosynthesis, the AI applications, the insight landing on Mars，and so on...... Technological innovations make us discover a larger world.

这些最新的科技话题，每个都在知乎上引发了热烈讨论。在知乎超过 3000 万个问题中，科技一直是规模最大的话题和讨论门类。除了科技话题，知乎上也有很多其它领域的讨论，涉及的话题数量高达 27 万。当然，这里面也包括英国以及牛津大学的讨论。事实上，知乎聚集了超过 17 万在英国的用户，他们的无私分享，让中国网友更了解英国的人文和科技。

The innovations has been discussed extensively on Zhihu. Yes, Zhihu is a Q&A online community that collected 270 thousand topics and 30 million questions in total. There are also many discussions about other fields including the UK and Oxford. Especially, Zhihu has gathered more than 170 thousand users from the UK, their posts in UK about culture and technology are very valuable.

说到「科技强国」，毫无疑问，英国从第一次工业革命开始，就是当之无愧的科技强国。数百年来，英国的科技创新实力都名列前茅。而建校 900 多年的牛津大学更是不可忽视的一支力量。作为英国最大的科研中心，牛津大学为全球科技发展输送了大量杰出的人才，他们创造的科技硕果，不仅推动英国成为世界科技强国，也惠及到世界各国的人民。

Obviously, the UK has been a well-deserved tech leader since the first Industrial Revolution.For centuries, the UK has been one of the world's leading technology innovators. And Oxford, the largest scientific research center in the UK with more than 900-year history, has provided a massive number of outstanding talents. Their work on science and technology benefit the country and people of the whole world.

那么，中国的科技发展又是怎样一番景象呢？在接到主办方的邀请之后，我把这次的论坛议题作为一个问题在知乎抛出，截止到上周，一共收获了 299 个回答，3198 人关注，186 多万人浏览。

Well, what about the technological development in China? After receiving the invitation from the forum, I raised a question as same as our topic on Zhihu. As of last week, the question had received more than 300 answers, and around 3 thousands followers. The discussions received 1.89 million page views.

基本上，大家已经形成两个共识。第一个共识，如果在全球范围内横向对比，中国实质上已经是一个科技大国。中国的科技发展正处于从量的积累向质的飞跃、点的突破向系统能力提升的重要时期。

Basically, there are two consensuses. The first is, China has essentially become a major tech power across the world. And the tipping point for China to be tech leader may be in the near future.

我这里有一组数据， 2008 年至 2018 年，中国科技人员共发表国际论文 227.22 万篇，论文共被引用 2272.40 万次，分别排在世界第 2 位；中国成为世界上唯一一个专利申请有两位数增长的国家，一个对研究和发展的投资高达全世界投资总额的 20% 的国家。

Let me show you some data. From 2008 to 2018, Chinese researchers have published 2,272,200 papers internationally, which have been cited 22,724,000 times, and both ranked the second in the world after the United States. China is also the only country that have double-digit growth in patent applications, and the one whose research funds has accounted for 20 percent of the total in the world.

往「大」了说。过去几年，中国在科技工程上成果累累，被海内外称作「基建狂魔」。这些科技工程不仅遍及中国，还走出国门，甚至上天入海。

In the macro scope，China has made great achievements in technology engineering all over the world.That's why China has been called "the infrastructure maniac" in domestic and abroad.

一个多月前，中国嫦娥四号探测器成功在月球背面软着陆，实现了中国在太空科技史上的一大步；同一年，中国建成了世界上里程最长、施工难度最大、技术含量最高、科学专利和投资金额最多的跨海大桥——港珠澳大桥，这座大桥也被英国《卫报》评为「新世界七大奇迹」之一。

One month ago, China's Chang 'e-4 spacecraft has successfully landed on far side of the moon, marking a giant leap for China in history. In the same year, China has completed the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge, which is the most difficult construction, with the longest length, the highest tech, the most scientific patents and the largest amount of investment in the world. The bridge has also been named as one of the "the seven wonders of the modern world" by The Guardian.

往「小」了说呢，2018 年，中国首次揭示水合离子的微观结构，获得水合离子的原子级图像，在离子电池、海水淡化等领域开拓了新的应用前景；中国还首次在铁基超导材料中发现马约拉纳任意子，对于未来构建高度稳定的量子计算机具有重要意义。

In the micro scope, China has revealed the micro-structure of hydrated ions for the first time, obtained atomic images of hydrated ions, and opened up new prospects in application fields such as ion batteries and seawater desalination; China has also found Mayolana Arbitron for the first time in iron-based superconducting materials, which is of great significance for the construction of a highly stable quantum computer in the future.

「大」和「小」我们说完了，接下来我们换个角度，再往「细」了说。科技驱动中国在「创造」和「发现」领域一日千里，同时也在生活细节上改变着我们。都说中国的应用科技的天堂，没错，中国的数字技术、无人机技术、移动支付技术、共享经济都跑在全球前列，为民众创造了新的生活方式，让大家切身体会到什么是「科技改变生活」。

From another angle, besides the creations and discoveries，technology has extensively changed our lives. Absolutely, China leads world in

digital tech, drone tech,mobile payment tech and innovative sharing economy.

曾经有家媒体做过一幅有趣的用户画像，叫做「一个中国人的一天」，我们不妨叫他 Jack。

There was an interesting user profile called "One Day of a Chinese Person". Let's call him Jack.

Jack 每天早上 7 点准时被智能机器人叫醒，他一边洗漱，一天预知天气，享受音乐；9 点钟，Jack 通过手机 NFC 支付乘坐地铁上班，在上班路上刷一刷知乎，看看算法推荐下的感兴趣的内容；10 点钟到达公司之前，在外卖订餐网站预定的咖啡已经送到了 Jack 的办公桌上；下午 2 点钟，Jack 突然想起家中该缴纳电费了，于是他在手机 App 上花费1分钟完成缴费；6 点钟下班之后，Jack 乘坐网约车回家，在到家之前，空调、热水器等智能家居已经做好了准备工作......

Jack wakes up at 7 a.m. every morning by the intelligent robot which providing weather and music services; At 9 a.m., Jack takes the subway to work with the mobile phone NFC payment. On the way to work, he browses Zhihu to check the content that he is interested in under the recommendation of algorithm; Before he arrives at the company at 10 a.m., the coffee that came from ordering website has been on Jack's office desk; At 2 p.m., Jack suddenly remembers that it is time to pay the electricity bill for his house, so he spends 1 minute on the mobile App to complete the payment; And at 6 p.m. after work, Jack goes back home by car-hailing services, meanwhile,the air conditioning, water heater and other smart-home services have been well prepared in his house......

科技对一个普通人生活的渗透，远不限于此。1985 年上映的经典科幻电影《回到未來》脑洞了一个充满科技的未来世界，到了如今的真实世界，我们几乎实现了电影中至少一半的科技设想。

The influence of technology to our life goes further.The classic science fiction film “Back to the Future” in 1985, has imagined a futuristic world full of technology. Now, almost half of the technological visions in the film have come true in the real world.

为了另外一半设想早日成为现实，中国科技行业还在不断地探索之中。比如说我所在的公司知乎，AI 算法、机器学习已经渗透进知识产出和分享的每个环节，用户在知乎看到的每一个内容推送，输出的每一个知识见解，背后都饱含技术创新的作用。

But Chinese technology industry is still exploring to realize the other half, for instance, my company Zhihu. AI algorithm and machine learning have been extensively used in the flowing and converting of knowledge. We can see the technological innovations behind the content-based recommendation systems of Zhihu.

从大型工程建造，到细胞粒子级的探索，再到改变生活细节的互联网应用，中国取得的这些科技成就，靠的不是闭门造车，而是全球化的开放合作。当然，这些技术创新中就有大量来自归国留学生和学者的贡献。

The engineering constructions, the innovations in discovery, the changes of our lives, or whoever，these technology achievements in China was depending on globalized openness and cooperation instead of operating behind closed doors. Particularly, a large number of these technological innovations have come from the returned students and scholars.

依靠这些创新突破，中国成为当之无愧的科技大国，但在成为真正意义上的科技强国与科技巨头之前，还有一段很长的路要走。这也就是知乎用户达成的第二个共识。

With these innovative breakthroughs, China has become a well-deserved major tech power, but it still has a long way to go before becoming a real tech leader. This is the second consensus.

中国在数字技术、移动支付技术等应用市场跑在全球前列，但在科技创新能力、与基础科学研究上仍然存在短板，跟欧美先进水平有明显差距。

China leads the world in digital technology, mobile payment technology and other application markets, but there are still shortcomings in technology innovation ability and basic scientific research, and there is a significant gap with the advanced level of Europe and America.

首先，科技创新能力代表是一个国家科技发展潜力和创造力。据世界知识产权组织发布的《2018 年全球创新指数》显示：中国从 2016 年开始位列前 25 位，并持续上升到 2018 年的第 17 位，进步最大的指数是普通基础建设、高新技术进口、知识型工人、知识技术产出等。但劣势也十分明显，主要集中在监管、高等教育、生态可持续性、信贷、海外投资、创意服务等领域。

First of all, the technology innovation ability represents a country's potential and creativity. According to “The Global Innovation Index 2018” released by the WIPO (World Intellectual Property Organization), China has continuously risen to the 17th, with ranking in the top 25 in 2 years ago.The most advanced indexes are General infrastructure，High-tech net imports，Knowledge workers，and technology outputs. However, it also has obvious disadvantages, mainly in the fields of regulatory environment，tertiary education，ecological sustainability，credit, overseas investment and creative services.

可以说，我国的科技创新水平增长明显，已经接近了科技强国水平，但是显然和目前的科技体量排名相比，还有一定差距。

In one word, Chinese technology innovation ability has grown significantly, but compared with the current technology ranking, there is obviously still a gap.

比如中国的医疗行业。中国是人口大国，医疗技术的进步关乎国计民生。但截至 2016 年，中国 HAQ（医疗服务可及性和质量指数）在 195 个国家中排名第 48 位，与欧美先进国家差距明显。

Or take China's medical industry for example. The progress of medical technology is important to the national economy and the people's livelihood，especially in China such a large population country. However, as of 2016, China's HAQ (accessibility and quality index of medical service) ranks 48th among 195 countries, which is obviously different from Europe and America.

再者，基础科学研究能力是科技创新的源动力，基础科学的价值在于探索人类的认知边界。因此，基础科学研究是无国界的，关乎的是全人类的利益。在这个核心地带，中国的研究依然还在艰难的爬坡阶段。

Moreover, the ability of basic scientific research is the source power of technology, and an important guiding to the cognitive boundary of human beings.Therefore, basic scientific research has no borders and is related to the interests of all mankind. In this core area, Chinese research is still in the difficult climbing stage.

去年 10 月 23 日深夜，腾讯创始人马化腾在知乎上提了一个问题：「未来十年哪些基础科学突破会影响互联网科技产业？产业互联网和消费互联网融合创新，会带来哪些改变？」，引发了全民关注。

In the late night of October 23, 2018, Mr. Ma Huateng asked a question on Zhihu，which had aroused the public concern. The question is: “Which basic scientific breakthroughs will affect the Internet technology industry in the next decade? What changes will be brought about by the integration and innovation of industrial Internet and consumer Internet? ”

这是一个明显的信号，中国科技行业已经充分意识到基础科学的重要性，甚至这种重视已经上升到国家层面。目前中国国家发改委已经启动了促进基础科学发展的「十四五」发展规划的前期研究，将基础科学的创新和研究融入国家发展大局中来。

This is a highly visible signal that China is fully aware of the importance of basic science, even at the national level. At present, the National Development and Reform Commission of China has launched the preliminary study of "14th five-year plan" to promote the development of basic science, integrating the innovation and research of basic science into the big picture of national development.

同时，需要再次强调的是，科技创新是世界性的、时代性的，发展科技必须具有全球视野，聚四海之气、借八方之力。从科技大国到科技强国的路上，中国也在不断深化国际科技交流合作，拥抱全球科技创新人才。眼下，无论是中国政府还是学界、企业界，都对高端科技人才表现出强烈的渴求。

At the same time, it needs to be emphasized again that technological innovation is universal and epochal. The development of technology must be based on a global vision, gather the spirit and strength from the world. On its way to being a tech leader, China has also been deepening international exchanges and cooperation, and embracing global talents. At present, whatever the Chinese government, academia and business community ,have shown a strong desire for top technology talents.

当下，中国科技界已经汇聚了来自全世界的尖端科技人才，为中国科技发展贡献了无穷的才智。在牛津大学，中国留学生超过 800 人，都是推动未来科技发展的潜力股。你们的未来是光明的，但使命也是艰巨的。你们的来处——正在崛起的中国——有大把的机会等着你们去开拓，也有大把的挑战等着你们去攻克。

Now, China has gathered a lot of talents from all over the world, who contributing endless Intelligence to the technology development. In Oxford，There are more than 800 Chinese overseas students，and whey are all potential drivers of future technology. I will tell you，your future is bright, while your mission is also challengeable. The rising China has so many opportunities and challenges waiting for you.

立足中国科技变革大潮中，我们热切的盼望你们能够在学成之后，回到祖国的怀抱，为中国乃至世界科技的进步贡献一份才智和力量，中国能否成为下一个科技强国、科技巨头，这一天能否早日到来，由你们来决定。

In the wave of Chinese technology revolution, we eagerly look forward to your return after graduation,and your talent and strength for China and even the world. Whether China can become the next tech leader, and can the day come soon, it is up to you.

谢谢大家。

Thank you for your listening.

来源： 北国网

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